CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Wed 21 Dec 07:00 - Thu 22 Dec 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 21 Dec 07:27 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Long-wave trough over eastern Europe propagates eastward, and CAA dominates over eastern Mediterranean. Latest soundings show stable airmass and dry boundary layer, and thunderstorms should be unlikely. To the west ... high pressure system builds over western and central Europe ... leading to northerly winds over central/western Mediterranean. Stable airmass and quite strong inversion is present over northern Mediterranean, to the south ... upper trough is present ... and steep low-level lapse rates are indicated by latest soundings. However ... poor low-level moisture is present ... and only isolated thunderstorms should develop. Over northwestern Europe ... neutral lapse rates are present over North Sea and northeastern Atlantic. A strong short-wave trough propagates northeastward crossing northern British Isles and northern North Sea. Showers are expected, and moderate vertical wind shear is forecast. A few bowing lines or multicells are not ruled out. However ... weak instability should be present ... and thunderstorms are not likely ATTM.

DISCUSSION

#